From William O’Keefe, regarding the claim that cap and trade would cost Americans the equivalent of a “postage stamp a day”:

Its findings hinge on several dubious assumptions. The agency’s researchers assume that more than 100 new nuclear facilities will be in operation in 2030, in spite of the fact that no new facility has been built in the past 30 years. The analysis also assumes that the offset market operates honestly, effectively and efficiently — ignoring the wide-spread incidents of fraud and abuse in the existing EU market.

The dubious conjectures don’t end there. The frequently cited stamp stat also assumes that emissions allowances will hold down prices, that cap-and- trade will spur innovation, that carbon capture and storage will be cost-effective, and that there will be large efficiency gains from building codes and low-carbon energy systems. It’s true that all economic models rely, to some degree, on assumptions. However, the EPA analysis takes it to an extreme, relying on assumptions that are often exaggerated or simply inadequate.

Reminds us of our cartoon:

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